Methodology · UER
Utility Escalation Risk
0–10 score measuring forward 24-month risk that an investor-owned utility raises retail rates, demand charges, or large-load tariff terms above current schedules.
Inputs
Source feeds and weights.
| Feed | Class | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| FERC Form 1 financials & capex trajectory | MODELED INTELLIGENCE | 35% |
| Active state PUC rate-case dockets | MODELED INTELLIGENCE | 30% |
| Fuel pass-through / FAC trajectory | LIVE PUBLIC DATA | 20% |
| Approved IRP capex commitments | MODELED INTELLIGENCE | 15% |
Model
Formula and plain English.
Formula
UER = Σ wᵢ · normalize(signalᵢ) → clamp[0, 10]
In plain English
Weighted, normalized blend of utility capex velocity, open rate cases, fuel adjustments, and approved IRP spend — clamped to a 0–10 scale.
Operations
Cadence and confidence.
Refresh cadence
Weekly refresh, recalculated on every new docket filing.
Confidence interval
Direction (rising/falling) is high confidence; magnitude carries ±0.8 point band.
Limitations
What this index does not do.
- L/01Pre-filing rate-case signals are inferred from earnings calls and capex commitments.
- L/02Does not model state-level legislative interventions.
Change log
Recent calibration history.
2026-Q2
Added FAC velocity term after 2025 fuel volatility.