Methodology · IQR
Interconnection Queue Realism
P50/P90 time-to-energization estimate (months) for a hypothetical project entering the active queue today, by ISO and resource type.
Inputs
Source feeds and weights.
| Feed | Class | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| ISO active queue postings | LIVE PUBLIC DATA | 40% |
| Historical cluster cycle outcomes (5y rolling) | MODELED INTELLIGENCE | 30% |
| Withdrawal pattern & restudy frequency | MODELED INTELLIGENCE | 20% |
| Network upgrade cost allocation trajectory | MODELED INTELLIGENCE | 10% |
Model
Formula and plain English.
Formula
T_energ = T_base × (1 + queueDepthFactor) × (1 + restudyFactor)
In plain English
Base ISO cluster cycle time, multiplied by how crowded the queue is and how often projects in the same cluster trigger restudy.
Operations
Cadence and confidence.
Refresh cadence
Daily refresh against active queue postings.
Confidence interval
P50 within ±3 months for current cluster; P90 within ±9 months.
Limitations
What this index does not do.
- L/01Does not model bilateral upgrade negotiations.
- L/02Surplus interconnection service paths are excluded from the base estimate.
Change log
Recent calibration history.
2026-Q2
Folded MISO ERAS pathway as separate sub-track.