Methodology · HEA
Hyperscale Expansion Activity
Rolling 24-month pipeline (GW) of announced + signed hyperscale data center load across the US, segmented by ISO and time-to-energization confidence.
Inputs
Source feeds and weights.
| Feed | Class | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Public company filings & press releases | MODELED INTELLIGENCE | 40% |
| State permitting & PUC large-load applications | MODELED INTELLIGENCE | 30% |
| Utility large-load tariff filings | MODELED INTELLIGENCE | 20% |
| County GIS / parcel assemblage signals | MODELED INTELLIGENCE | 10% |
Model
Formula and plain English.
Formula
HEA(GW) = Σ (announcedMW × P(energization within 24m))
In plain English
Sum of announced load weighted by the probability each project actually energizes within the next 24 months.
Operations
Cadence and confidence.
Refresh cadence
Monthly composite, event-driven updates on major announcements.
Confidence interval
P50 pipeline is well-cited; P90 carries ~25% downside band based on historical attrition.
Limitations
What this index does not do.
- L/01Confidential pre-announcement pipeline is excluded by design.
- L/02Does not include co-location with existing nuclear/gas BTM unless publicly disclosed.
Change log
Recent calibration history.
2026-Q2
Lifted attrition assumption after observed cluster cycle slippage.