Methodology · CMT
Capacity Market Tightness
Forward 12-month capacity price trajectory for ISOs with capacity constructs (PJM, MISO, ISO-NE, NYISO), expressed as expected clearing price and confidence band.
Inputs
Source feeds and weights.
| Feed | Class | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Most recent BRA/PRA/FCA prints | LIVE PUBLIC DATA | 40% |
| Forecast peak load vs reserve margin | MODELED INTELLIGENCE | 30% |
| Generator retirements & deactivation filings | MODELED INTELLIGENCE | 20% |
| Capacity rule change dockets | MODELED INTELLIGENCE | 10% |
Model
Formula and plain English.
Formula
P_capacity = f(reserveMargin, retirementVelocity, ruleConstruct)
In plain English
Forward price modeled from reserve margin compression, generator retirement velocity, and active capacity rule construct.
Operations
Cadence and confidence.
Refresh cadence
Refreshed on every auction print; weekly otherwise.
Confidence interval
Direction high confidence; absolute price ±15% band on the next auction.
Limitations
What this index does not do.
- L/01ERCOT (energy-only) and CAISO (RA construct) are reported on separate frameworks.
- L/02Rule-change probability is qualitative, not Monte-Carlo modeled.
Change log
Recent calibration history.
2026-Q2
Recalibrated against PJM 2025/26 BRA cap-clearing print.