OpportunityB/01
LDES procurement creates a new asset class.
AB 1373 and CPUC orders are setting multi-GW long-duration storage targets. The first technology platforms with bankable PPAs at scale will define the asset class.
ISO/09 · California (most of)
California Independent System OperatorCAISO
Duck curve to canyon: storage as the load-following resource.
Storage Installed
13+ GW
LDES Procurement
Multi-GW
EDAM Footprint
Expanding
TERMINAL · ISO/09
Operational intelligence frame
LIVE · 5-MIN REFRESH
LMP HEATMAP · $/MWh · 7D × 24H
MIN $14 · MAX $159MONTUEWEDTHUFRISATSUN
0006121823
SCALE:LOWMIDELEVATEDSCARCITY
QUEUE AGING · GW
0–1y46 GW
1–2y77 GW
2–3y95 GW
3–5y134 GW
5y+71 GW
Median age: 3.4y · trending +0.6y YoY
TOP CONSTRAINED NODES · 24H
#
Node
LMP
Cong.
Headroom
Δ
1
DOM.WARRENTON
$37
52
40%
-2.8
2
AEP.LIVINGSTON
$111
79
18%
-4.3
3
COMD.JOLIET
$99
100
20%
-0.7
4
BGE.CALVERT
$61
42
6%
+4.0
5
PEPCO.BRANDYWINE
$63
31
38%
+2.4
6
PJM.BLACKOAK
$65
10
35%
+2.8
FERC DOCKET STREAM
ER26-12842026-05-09
Capacity auction parameter update
TariffER26-11902026-05-02
Order 2023 queue reform compliance
QueueER26-11122026-04-24
RTEP transmission expansion proposal
TransmissionER26-10412026-04-18
Affected systems study protocol revision
ProcessEL26-08322026-04-09
Cost allocation complaint — load zone
LitigationILLUSTRATIVE TERMINAL VIEW · PRODUCTION FEEDS UNDER NDA · REFRESH 5 MIN
Read
CAISO has become the world's leading test case for a grid built around solar and storage. Battery dispatch now routinely sets evening LMPs. The duck curve has steepened into a canyon. And the next decade's investment thesis hinges on long-duration storage, transmission expansion, and EDAM footprint.
STRUCTURAL METRICS
LIVE-TRACKED- Footprint
- California (~80% of state load)
- Peak Load Record
- ~52 GW (Sept 2022)
- Battery Storage Installed
- ~13+ GW
- Solar Installed
- ~20+ GW utility-scale
- EDAM footprint
- Expanding across West
Constraint Map
Where the headroom is gone.
N/01
CriticalLA Basin / Path 26
Local capacity requirement; gas peaker retirement pressure.
N/02
ElevatedBay Area / Silicon Valley
Hyperscale + industrial; transmission limited north-south.
N/03
ElevatedCentral Valley / Path 15-26 corridor
Solar generation pocket; transmission expansion priority.
N/04
WatchImperial Valley / Lithium Valley
Geothermal + lithium extraction nexus.
Queue Dynamics
Interconnection truth.
Cluster Study process
GIDAP reforms recently implemented
Storage saturation in queue
>80% of new MW
Long-duration storage procurement
AB 1373 / CPUC orders driving
Themes
What we are watching.
T/01
Storage as the asset class
California sets the pricing curve, dispatch sophistication, and merchant bankability frame for US storage.
T/02
Long-duration storage procurement
Multi-GW LDES procurement targets create new asset class economics.
T/03
EDAM expansion
CAISO day-ahead market extension into PacifiCorp, Idaho Power, BANC reshapes western flows.
T/04
Wildfire & PSPS overlay
Ignition risk reshapes transmission siting and reliability planning.
Rule Changes & Filings
Recent and pending.
2024
GIDAP interconnection reform
Filtering speculative queue; raising readiness bar.
Ongoing
EDAM go-live waves
Each utility addition reshapes western LMP footprint.
Ongoing
CPUC / CEC LDES procurement
Multi-GW solicitations create LDES market.
Positioning
Why CAISO matters now.
CAISO is the global test case for a grid built around solar and storage. Battery dispatch sets evening LMPs. The duck curve is now a canyon. The next decade of investment thesis hinges on long-duration storage procurement, EDAM footprint, and transmission expansion.
Buyer's Lens
How capital should read CAISO.
Four angles we underwrite against, written for the people actually deploying.
RiskB/02
Storage saturation compresses margins.
With >80% of new queue MW being storage, evening arbitrage margins are compressing. Dispatch IP and ancillary stacking are the differentiators.
Where Capital WinsB/03
Imperial Valley lithium + geothermal nexus.
The Salton Sea / Imperial Valley lithium-geothermal corridor is one of the most strategically important nexuses in US infrastructure — and it is still under-allocated by institutional capital.
What We WatchB/04
EDAM utility additions and LDES solicitation results.
Each EDAM addition reshapes western LMPs. Each LDES solicitation prints the curve for an emerging asset class.
Deliverables
What we ship on CAISO.
- D/01CAISO Storage Dispatch & Ancillary Stack Pack
- D/02LDES Procurement Tracker
- D/03Imperial Valley Lithium-Geothermal Atlas
- D/04EDAM Footprint Expansion Map
Audience
Who uses this read.
- Battery storage developers
- Long-duration storage technology providers
- Western utilities considering EDAM
- Hyperscalers in Bay Area / LA
Engage
Position capital before the CAISO cycle moves again.