R. Stock
Managing Partner · Head of Infrastructure Intelligence
Previously: power & utilities advisory, top-three strategy consultancy
An institutional capital allocator screening AI campus sites was being told by traditional consultants that the target footprint was fully congested. Our review surfaced multi-hundred-MW of practical capacity in adjacent substations that had been excluded from the prevailing market narrative.
Client Situation
A multi-strategy infrastructure investor was preparing a binding LOI on a 250+ MW campus position. Public narrative and broker materials suggested the broader corridor was effectively saturated, with no firm capacity expected to clear before 2029.
Challenge
The investor needed independent verification of capacity claims before committing capital. Existing materials relied on aggregated ISO datasets that masked substation-level headroom. The risk: overpaying for a site whose interconnection would be delayed by 36+ months, or walking away from a viable position based on outdated assumptions.
Analysis Performed
We reconstructed firm capacity at the substation level using FERC Form 715, ISO transmission planning filings, utility integrated resource plans, and queue position telemetry. Cross-referenced with rate case dockets, generator interconnection studies, and large-load tariff filings to identify where utility posture would support new load and where it would not.
Intelligence Findings
Three substations within 18 miles of the original target showed practical firm capacity that had been classified as 'planned' rather than 'available' in aggregated datasets. Two were already being engineered for adjacent industrial load and could absorb incremental large-load demand inside the investor's required online window.
Strategic Recommendation
Recommended the investor reposition the site search to the identified substations, restructure the LOI economics to reflect the actual interconnection timeline, and engage the relevant utility under a large-load study agreement before competitors recognized the capacity. We provided the diligence package, utility contact map, and counterparty escalation framework.
Outcome
The investor restructured the transaction around the identified capacity, materially improved the energization timeline, and avoided a contested position in the original corridor. Total elapsed time from kickoff to deliverable: 18 business days.
Client identities and exact figures are anonymized. Available for replacement with attributed client narratives upon written consent.